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中東と北アフリカの通信サービス:市場動向と予測 2016-2021年

Middle East and North Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016?2021

 

出版社 出版年月電子版価格 ページ数
Analysys Mason
アナリシスメイソン
2016年8月US$7,999
ベーシックライセンス
72

サマリー

このレポートは中東と北アフリカの通信サービス市場を調査し、市場動向、国ごとの分析や国間の共通点や違い、促進要因予測などを掲載しています。

レポートの特長

  • 中東と北アフリカ地域と12の主要国の100以上のモバイルと固定KPIの五ヶ年予測
  • モバイルと固定サービスの主要国での詳細な動向分析、促進要因予測
  • イランのデータを新たに予測データに追加
  • オペレータ戦略の概要と国に特化したトピックについて比較し、共通点や違いを紹介
  • 結果の要約、重要関連事項、モバイルと固定通信事業者への提案

Report Details

"The telecoms service market in the Middle East and North Africa will grow at a CAGR of 1.3% between 2015 and 2021 to USD77.6 billion."

We forecast that 93% of total telecoms service revenue in 2021 in the Middle East and North Africa will come from mobile services. Smartphone adoption has been strong and LTE is gaining momentum across the region, creating opportunities for operators to monetise the huge consumer appetite for data.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for the Middle East and North Africa region and for twelve key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • data for Iran, which has been added to the forecast coverage
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences through a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Coverage

Geographical coverage

 

Key performance indicators

Regions modelled

  • Middle East and North Africa

Countries modelled individually

  • Algeria
  • Egypt
  • Iran*
  • Iraq
  • Israel
  • Kuwait
  • Morocco
  • Oman
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Tunisia
  • United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Countries not modelled individually, but modelled as part of the region as a whole

  • Bahrain
  • Jordan
  • Lebanon
  • Libya
  • Palestine
  • Syria
  • Yemen
 

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone,
    non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU
 

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

 



目次

Table of Contents

11. Executive summary

12. The telecoms service market in MENA will grow to USD77.5 billion in 2021, against the backdrop of a weaker macroeconomic outlook

13. Telecoms retail revenue will increase by USD6.2 billion between 2015 and 2021, driven by mobile handset data and fixed broadband services

14. Fixed or mobile revenue will grow in most countries, but competition, market saturation and lack of investment will have an impact on some

15. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets

16. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators

17. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison

18. Geographical coverage: We model twelve telecoms markets, which will account for 90.7% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2021

19. Market context: The twelve modelled countries account for 83.3% of total population and 92.4% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2015

20. Revenue and ARPU: Mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth in the region, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate

21. Mobile penetration: Maturing markets and enforced SIM registration have already led to a slow down in the number of new mobile connections

22. Mobile connections: 44.2% of all connections will be 3G by 2021, while LTE will account for nearly a quarter of mobile SIMs (excluding M2M)

23. Smartphones and 4G/5G: Israel will have the highest smartphone penetration and UAE will lead 4G/5G take-up rates over the next 5 years

24. Mobile ARPU: Growth in data will offset the decline from voice and messaging, thereby lessening the rate of decline of ARPU

25. Fixed services: Broadband market will grow in most countries, driven by upgrades to access technology and greenfield infrastructure deployment

26. Fixed broadband: Household penetration will grow in all markets, driven by market competition and supported by national broadband plans

27. Key drivers at a glance for each Middle East and North Africa market

28. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]

29. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]

30. Individual country forecasts

31. Algeria: Retail revenue will grow at a CAGR of 0.6% during 2015–2021, driven by demand for mobile and fixed broadband services

32. Algeria – mobile: 3G and the upcoming 4G launch will provide the momentum to drive demand for mobile data services

33. Algeria – fixed: DSL and fixed LTE have great potential for growth, but lack of investment will be a significant obstacle

34. Egypt: Service revenue will grow at a CAGR of 0.9% to 2021, driven by demand for fixed broadband and handset data

35. Egypt – mobile: Service revenue is set to decline at a CAGR of –1.1% over 2016–2021, giving a weakened market outlook

36. Egypt – fixed: Strong growth in broadband connections, while price adjustments and business lines will help slow voice erosion

37. Iran: Lifting of sanctions will improve GDP and encourage investment, while data services will bolster the mobile segment

38. Iran – mobile: Increased access to 3G and 4G services and the prospect of new market entrants will underpin future growth

39. Iran – fixed: Market development will depend on investment in infrastructure, amidst competition from mobile to voice services

40. Iraq: The challenging economic and volatile security situations will take their toll on consumer demand in the short term

41. Iraq – mobile: Political instability and low oil prices will impact the economy, but data offer some potential for revenue growth

42. Iraq – fixed: Poor fixed line infrastructure and persistent civil war will contribute to the under-development of the sector

43. Israel: Competition and price erosion will continue to impact mobile revenue; fixed market liberalisation will spur competition

44. Israel – mobile: Intense competition will result in significant revenue decline, while 3G share will start to fall from 2016

45. Israel – fixed: Speed upgrades and the introduction of fibre in 2016 will spur further growth in broadband market revenue

46. Kuwait: Mobile market dynamism and growth are contrasted with a fixed market that lacks competition and investment

47. Kuwait – mobile: LTE will be central to mobile market competition as operators aim to increase data usage to stabilise ARPU

48. Kuwait – fixed: Planned privatisation of fixed infrastructure and fixed– mobile partnerships could unlock broadband potential

49. Morocco: Voice revenue will decline, but still dominate the market, while mobile handset data will be the fastest-growing sector

50. Morocco – mobile: Strong growth of data revenue will be insufficient to offset rapidly declining voice revenue

51. Morocco – fixed: Fixed voice market will remain largely resilient, while broadband adoption will be driven by business and dual-play

52. Oman: Service revenue growth will maintain its rapid rise, driven by very strong demand for fixed and mobile data

53. Oman – mobile: Very strong data revenue outlook, while a new third entrant could pose a risk of ARPU and market value erosion

54. Oman – fixed: Fixed voice revenue will decline from 2015, while fibre competition increases due to ambitious roll-out plans

55. Qatar: Strong economic and population growth will help telecoms services to generate QAR10 billion in retail revenue by 2021

56. Qatar – mobile: Demand from migrants will sustain growth in connections, while 4G competition will be based on technology

57. Qatar – fixed: Quasi-ubiquity of fibre creates opportunities for upselling of TV services, but these will be limited to Ooredoo

58. Saudi Arabia: Broadband data services will drive retail revenue growth, but competition will reduce short-term market growth

59. Saudi Arabia – mobile: MVNOs will drive subscriber growth in the short term, while data will capture half of retail revenue by 2021

60. Saudi Arabia – fixed: Voice market recovered in 2015 thanks to the business segment while broadband outlook appears strong

61. Tunisia: Infrastructure investments and competition will help stimulate growth amidst political and economic challenges

62. Tunisia – mobile: Steady growth of subscribers from Lycamobile launch, while demand for data will be key to revenue growth

63. Tunisia – fixed: The broadband market will grow slowly due to competition from mobile, while the telephony market will contract

64. UAE: Economic diversification and population growth will help increase telecoms retail revenue to AED42.9 billion by 2021

65. UAE – mobile: Increasing contributions from postpaid and data users should help to drive revenue growth and slow ARPU erosion

66. UAE – fixed: Infrastructure sharing will stimulate competition and encourage operators to invest in the sector to maintain growth

67. About the author and Analysys Mason

68. About the author

69. Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned

70. Research from Analysys Mason

71. Consulting from Analysys Mason

© Analysys Mason Limited 2016

 

List of Figures

 

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Middle East and North Africa, 2011–2021

Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2015–2021

Figure 3: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2015–2021) and total retail revenue (2021) by country, Middle East and North Africa

Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for the Middle East and North Africa

Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA penetration of fixed broadband connections by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2021

Figure 6: Metrics for the twelve countries modelled individually in the Middle East and North Africa, 2015

Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Middle East and North Africa, 2011–2021

Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2015–2021

Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2015–2021

Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2011–2021

Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G’s share of connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2011– 2021 6

Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G share of total connections (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2015 and 2021

Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2011–2021

Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2011–2021

Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2011–2021

Figure 16: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2015) and future trajectory (2016–2021) by country, Middle East and North Africa

Figure 17: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Algeria, 2011–2021

Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Algeria, 2015–2021

Figure 20: Connections by type, and growth rates, Algeria, 2015–2021

Figure 21: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Algeria, 2011– 2021

Figure 22: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Algeria, 2011–2021

Figure 23: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Algeria

Figure 24: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Algeria, 2011–2021

Figure 25: Fixed ASPU by service type, Algeria, 2011–2021

Figure 26: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Algeria

Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Egypt, 2011–2021

Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Egypt, 2015–2021

Figure 29: Connections by type, and growth rates, Egypt, 2015–2021

Figure 30: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Egypt, 2011– 2021

Figure 31: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Egypt, 2011–2021

Figure 32: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Egypt

Figure 33: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Egypt, 2011–2021

Figure 34: Fixed ASPU by service type, Egypt, 2011–2021

Figure 35: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Egypt

Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Iran, 2011–2021

Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Iran, 2015–2021

Figure 38: Connections by type, and growth rates, Iran, 2015–2021

Figure 39: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Iran, 2011–2021 7

Figure 40: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Iran, 2011–2021

Figure 41: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Iran

Figure 42: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Iran, 2011–2021

Figure 43: Fixed ASPU by service type, Iran, 2011–2021

Figure 44: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Iran

Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Iraq, 2011–2021

Figure 46: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Iraq, 2015–2021

Figure 47: Connections by type, and growth rates, Iraq, 2015–2021

Figure 48: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Iraq, 2011–2021

Figure 49: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Iraq, 2011–2021

Figure 50: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Iraq

Figure 51: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Iraq, 2011–2021

Figure 52: Fixed ASPU by service type, Iraq, 2011–2021

Figure 53: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Iraq

Figure 54: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Israel, 2011–2021

Figure 55: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Israel, 2015–2021

Figure 56: Connections by type, and growth rates, Israel, 2015–2021

Figure 57: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Israel, 2011–2021

Figure 58: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Israel, 2011–2021

Figure 59: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Israel

Figure 60: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Israel, 2011–2021

Figure 61: Fixed ASPU by service type, Israel, 2011–2021

Figure 62: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Israel

Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Kuwait, 2011–2021

Figure 64: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Kuwait, 2015–2021

Figure 65: Connections by type, and growth rates, Kuwait, 2015–2021

Figure 66: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Kuwait, 2011–2021

Figure 67: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Kuwait, 2011–2021

Figure 68: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Kuwait

Figure 69: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Kuwait, 2011–2021

Figure 70: Fixed ASPU by service type, Kuwait, 2011–2021

Figure 71: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Kuwait 8

Figure 72: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Morocco, 2011–2021

Figure 73: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Morocco, 2015–2021

Figure 74: Connections by type, and growth rates, Morocco, 2015–2021

Figure 75: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Morocco, 2011–2021

Figure 76: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Morocco, 2011–2021

Figure 77: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Morocco

Figure 78: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Morocco, 2011–2021

Figure 79: Fixed ASPU by service type, Morocco, 2011–2021

Figure 80: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Morocco

Figure 81: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Oman, 2011–2021

Figure 82: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Oman, 2015–2021

Figure 83: Connections by type, and growth rates, Oman, 2015–2021

Figure 84: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Oman, 2011–2021

Figure 85: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Oman, 2011–2021

Figure 86: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Oman

Figure 87: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Oman, 2011–2021

Figure 88: Fixed ASPU by service type, Oman, 2011–2021

Figure 89: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Oman

Figure 90: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Qatar, 2011–2021

Figure 91: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Qatar, 2015–2021

Figure 92: Connections by type, and growth rates, Qatar, 2015–2021

Figure 93: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Qatar, 2011–2021

Figure 94: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Qatar, 2011–2021

Figure 95: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Qatar

Figure 96: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Qatar, 2011–2021

Figure 97: Fixed ASPU by service type, Qatar, 2011–2021

Figure 98: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Qatar

Figure 99: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Saudi Arabia, 2011–2021

Figure 100: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2015–2021

Figure 101: Connections by type, and growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2015–2021

Figure 102: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Saudi Arabia 2011–2021

Figure 103: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Saudi Arabia, 2011–2021 9

Figure 104: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Saudi Arabia

Figure 105: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2011–2021

Figure 106: Fixed ASPU by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2011–2021

Figure 107: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Saudi Arabia

Figure 108: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Tunisia, 2011–2021

Figure 109: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Tunisia, 2015–2021

Figure 110: Connections by type, and growth rates, Tunisia, 2015–2021

Figure 111: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Tunisia, 2011–2021

Figure 112: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Tunisia, 2011–2021

Figure 113: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Tunisia

Figure 114: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Tunisia, 2011–2021

Figure 115: Fixed ASPU by service type, Tunisia, 2011–2021

Figure 116: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Tunisia

Figure 117: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), UAE, 2011–2021

Figure 118: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, UAE, 2015–2021

Figure 119: Connections by type, and growth rates, UAE, 2015–2021

Figure 120: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, UAE, 2011–2021

Figure 121: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, UAE, 2011–2021 10

Figure 122: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, UAE

Figure 123: Fixed penetration rates by service type, UAE, 2011–2021

Figure 124: Fixed ASPU by service type, UAE, 2011–2021

Figure 125: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, UAE

 

 

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