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農村部で次世代アクセスプラットフォームとしての役割を担うLTE:費用対効果の分析

LTE as a next-generation access platform in rural markets: cost?benefit analysis

 

出版社 出版年月電子版価格 ページ数
アナリシスメイソン─2015年以前出版レポート
2013年7月US$4,999
ベーシックライセンス (PDF+PPT)
57

サマリー

この調査レポートは、農村部でのLTE展開について調査し、固定線の代替としてLTEを使用する場合のコストと利点、マクロセルやマイクロセルレベルでのLTEの性能などを分析・解説しています。

FTTC should be the preferred solution for 95% coverage of most developed countries, but a good case can be made for LTE as a stop-gap, and, using microcells, as a longer-term solution for the final 5%.

Several incumbent fixed operators have indicated that they see LTE as a suitable technology for providing next-generation broadband to static locations in rural areas where the operating cost per copper line is high. However, soaring usage on fixed broadband creates a major uncertainty about 4G’s viability as a solution. 

This report provides:

  • assessment of the costs and benefits of LTE as a fixed-line replacement
  • assessment of the capabilities of LTE at macrocell and microcell level
  • recommendations for operators and policy makers
  • a model simulating relative costs of FTTC/VDSL, LTE macrocell-only and LTE/LTE-A macrocell plus microcell approaches in a small town and rural area, as traffic increases
  • case studies of relevant operators.

Company coverage

This report includes case studies on the following operators.

  • AT&T
  • Deutsche Telekom
  • Mila
  • NBN Co
 
  • Orange Polska
  • Portugal Telecom
  • Superfast Cornwall
  • Telenor

 



目次

Contents

6. Executive summary
7. Operators have to weigh the long-term costs of a wireless-only approach against those of fixed
8. Recommendations
9. Recommendations for operators
10. Recommendations for policy makers
11. Rationale for LTE as a fixed-line replacement
12. Operators’ reasons for a strategic decision to migrate to fibre and wireless only are bound up with the operating costs of rural copper
13. Planned replacement of high-cost fixed lines in rural areas is not the same as demand-driven fixed–mobile substitution
14. The business case for LTE fixed-replacement is based on a complex set of variables, but is particularly sensitive to levels of traffic
15. End-user path speeds are affected by contention with all technologies, but more so in the case of LTE  
16. The attenuation of signal over distance is a major constraint of wireless and of copper
17. Attenuation restricts volume throughput at rural LTE tri-sector cell sites
18. Maximum number of subscribers per cell site based on volume of data (n*GB/month)
19. Maximum number of subscribers per cell site based on access speeds (n*Mbps)
20. Fixed data traffic is lower in rural areas, but this an effect of restricted supply rather than of lower demand per subscriber
21. Fixed Internet data traffic is increasing quickly, driven by growing take-up and usage of OTT video
22. LTE and FTTC technologies and costs
23. Basic costs of LTE-based macrocell implementation
24. The cost of rural microcells is a small fraction of the cost of macrocells, but implementations would cost a quarter of that of macrocells
25. CPE and installation at the property
26. FTTC/VDSL alternatives: costs per premises passed
27. The costs and benefits of decommissioning copper
28. Model for rural areas
29. Five options for LTE fixed-replacement deployment
30. Option 1a: LTE-only for the entire area using only macrocells
31. Option 1a with a lower usage profile
32. Option 1b: LTE-only with macrocell and microcell coverage
33. Option 2a: FTTC in the small town, LTE macrocells to cover the rural area
34. Option 2b: FTTC in the small town, LTE macrocell and microcell coverage in the rural area
35. Option 3a: FTTC to all cabinets and LTE macrocells for the last 15%
36. Alternative approaches
37. LTE-Advanced offers a framework of improvements that can help bring LTE fixed-replacement services up to the EU Digital Agenda specification
38. Hybrid fixed–mobile solutions could function as a useful work-around solution
39. Case studies and pricing
40. Verizon HomeFusion
41. AT&T
42. NBN Co – Fixed wireless
43. Portugal Telecom – MEO
44. Vodafone Germany – RealLTE Zuhause
45. Deutsche Telekom – Call & Surf Comfort via Funk
46. Orange Polska CDMA450 to LTE450 migration
47. Superfast Cornwall
48. Nordic incumbent operators: Telenor
49. Nordic incumbent operators: Telia and Míla
50. Examples of LTE fixed-replacement pricing show a huge variety of prices per gigabyte
51. LTE fixed-replacement pricing is generally, but not always, higher than for ADSL2+
52. About the author and Analysys Mason
53. About the author
54. About Analysys Mason
55. Research from Analysys Mason
56. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

Figure 1:  Indicative annualised cost base of macro-only, macro and micro, and FTTC approaches to NGA roll-out in rural markets  
Figure 2:  Demand-based and planned fixed–mobile broadband substitution  
Figure 3:   Typical throughputs and bottlenecks, common NGA platforms  
Figure 4:  Typical attenuation of downstream signal over distance, by technology  
Figure 5:  Volume throughput and number of subscribers supported on a rural 10km radius 800MHz cell site with 2×20MHz spectrum, by technology  
Figure 6:  Maximum LTE fixed-replacement subscribers per month per LTE cell site, 20MHz, by level of data usage, 2012–2017
Figure 7:  Ratio between maximum access speeds and allocated bandwidth, Telekom Deutschland residential IP bitstream services
Figure 8:  Maximum LTE fixed-replacement subscribers per month per LTE cell site, 20MHz, by access speed, 2012–2017  
Figure 9:  Correlation between access speed tier and data consumption, USA, April 2012  
Figure 10:  Density of premises and average data consumption, UK local authority areas, 2012  
Figure 11:  Density of premises and average access speed, UK local authority areas, 2012  
Figure 12:  Mean data consumption per fixed broadband subscriber by region, end of 2012 and end of 2018
Figure 13:  Typical annualised incremental cost of new site LTE base station and radio-only LTE upgrade  
Figure 14:  Annualised incremental cost of rural microcells by type of site
Figure 15:   Indicative connection and CPE costs for LTE fixed-replacement, external and internal antennae  
Figure 16:  Indicative annualised incremental cost of FTTC and cost per subscriber per month, by type of site  
Figure 17:  Cost fountain of full replacement
Figure 18:  Modelled roll-out options  
Figure 19:  Annualised costs of adding macrocell and FTTC infrastructure across all of the modelled area, 2012–2018  
Figure 20:  Annualised costs of adding macrocell and FTTC infrastructure across all of the modelled area assuming lower take-up or data caps, 2012–2018
Figure 21:  Annualised costs of adding LTE macrocells and microcells across all of the modelled area compared with FTTC across all of the modelled area, 2012–2018  
Figure 22:  Annualised costs of adding LTE macrocell infrastructure across rural parts of the modelled area compared with full FTTC roll-out, 2012–2018  
Figure 23:  Annualised costs of adding LTE macrocell and microcell infrastructure across rural parts of the modelled area compared with full FTTC roll-out, 2012–2018
Figure 24:  Annualised costs of full FTTC roll-out and LTE macrocell coverage in distributed rural areas unable to get a more-than-30Mbps service on FTTC, 2012–2018  
Figure 25:  Potential architecture of a DSL/LTE hybrid solution  
Figure 26:  Average fixed broadband traffic in Western Europe and Portugal, and Portugal Telecom average fixed broadband traffic by access technology, 2Q 2012  
Figure 27:  Examples of monthly price and price per gigabyte of LTE fixed-replacement services, June 2013  
Figure 28:  Examples of monthly pricing of LTE fixed-replacement and nearest equivalent ADSL2+ service, June 2013

 

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