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中東欧6ヶ国の通信市場:動向と予測(6ヶ国) 2015-2020年

Central and Eastern Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts (6 countries) 2015-2020

 

出版社 出版年月電子版価格 ページ数
アナリシスメイソン─2015年以前出版レポート
2015年9月US$7,999
ベーシックライセンス
42

PPT and PDF ; Excel

サマリー

"Total telecoms and pay-TV revenue will not grow during the forecast period in Central And Eastern Europe, because traditional voice revenue is under pressure in both the mobile and fixed markets, and data revenue will not compensate for these significant losses."

目次

Table of contents

 

7.Executive summary

8.Total telecoms revenue will decline slightly in the forecast period

9.Handset data revenue will show the greatest gains, and mobile voice the largest losses

10.Revenue will decline in all countries except Turkey, with the mobile markets faring worse in most markets

11.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets

12.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators

13.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison

14.Geographical coverage: 14 countries modelled individually, Russia and Turkey combined account for 58% of the entire region’s revenue

15.Market context: Telecoms services revenue accounted for 1.9% of GDP in 2014 and average monthly retail spend per capita was low at EUR11.8

16.Revenue and ARPU: Telecoms revenue will continue to decline, but fixed broadband and IPTV services will grow as their user bases increase

17.Mobile penetration: Multiple-SIM consolidation will cause mobile penetration to stabilise or decline in most countries

18.Mobile connections: 4G roll-out will gather pace during the forecast period

19.Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone demand will continue to grow strongly, even in countries where 4G is less advanced

20.Mobile ARPU: ARPU will decline steadily in most countries during the forecast period

21.Fixed services: Migration of voice users to VoBB will accelerate, while fixed broadband growth will slow down

22.Fixed broadband: Household penetration will continue to increase, but at a slower pace and with significant country-by-country variations

23.Key drivers at a glance for each Central and Eastern Europe market

24.Individual country forecasts

25.Czech Republic: The telecoms market will continue to contract
as mobile and fixed voice revenue decline sharply

26.Czech Republic - mobile: ARPU decline will significantly slow down, however competition will continue to drive down revenue

27.Czech Republic - fixed: Price competition in broadband and lack of interest in voice will drive down revenue in the fixed market

28.Poland: Total telecoms service revenue will continue to decline
because price competition will continue to be intense

29.Poland - mobile: Price competition will put downward pressure on ARPU, despite the enrichment of the customer base

30.Poland - fixed: Broadband ASPU will be stable as customers move to faster services and quadruple-play’s impact will be limited

31.Russia: Retail revenue will decline as mobile price competition intensifies and growth in fixed broadband slows down

32.Russia - mobile: Market consolidation will drive a decline in the number of connections and stimulate competition

33.Russia - fixed: FTTH/B roll-out will drive fixed broadband growth, regional fragmentation of ISPs will limit broadband ASPU decline

34.Turkey: Strong expansion in the mobile and fixed broadband connections will drive continued revenue growth

35.Turkey - mobile: Regulation kept mobile ARPU stable and 4G’s arrival will bolster it further, fuelling revenue growth

36.Turkey - fixed: Fibre development combined with an improved economic environment will drive further fixed broadband growth

37.About the authors and Analysys Mason

38.About the authors

39.About Analysys Mason

40.Research from Analysys Mason

41.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020

Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020

Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by country, Central and Eastern Europe

Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Central and Eastern Europe

Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA’s share of fixed broadband connections, by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2020

Figure 6: Metrics for 6 of the countries modelled individually in Central and Eastern Europe, 2014

Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020

Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020

Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020

Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020

Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G’s share of connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020

Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2014 and 2020

Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020

Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020

Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020

Figure 16: Major forecast drivers and impact, by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015-2020

Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Czech Republic, 2010-2020

Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Czech Republic, 2014-2020

Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, Czech Republic, 2014-2020

Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Czech Republic, 2010-2020

Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Czech Republic, 2010-2020

Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Czech Republic

Figure 23: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Czech Republic, 2010-2020

Figure 24: Fixed ASPU by service type, Czech Republic, 2010-2020

Figure 25: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Czech Republic

Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Poland, 2010-2020

Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Poland, 2014-2020

Figure 28: Connections by type, and growth rates, Poland, 2014-2020

Figure 29: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Poland, 2010-2020

Figure 30: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Poland, 2010-2020

Figure 31: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Poland

Figure 32: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Poland, 2010-2020

Figure 33: Fixed ASPU by service type, Poland, 2010-2020

Figure 34: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Poland

Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Russia, 2010-2020

Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Russia, 2014-2020

Figure 37: Connections by type, and growth rates, Russia, 2014-2020

Figure 38: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Russia, 2010-2020

Figure 39: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Russia, 2010-2020

Figure 40: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Russia

Figure 41: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Russia, 2010-2020

Figure 42: Fixed ASPU by service type, Russia, 2010-2020

Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Russia

Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Russia

Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Turkey, 2014-2020

Figure 46: Connections by type, and growth rates, Turkey, 2014-2020

Figure 47: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Turkey, 2010-2020

Figure 48: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Turkey, 2010-2020

Figure 49: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Turkey

Figure 50: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Turkey, 2010-2020

Figure 51: Fixed ASPU by service type, Turkey, 2010-2020

Figure 52: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Turkey

 

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