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2G移行の管理:アジア太平洋地域のケーススタディと戦略

Managing the 2G migration: case studies and strategies from Asia?Pacific

 

出版社 出版年月電子版価格 ページ数
アナリシスメイソン─2015年以前出版レポート
2013年11月US$4,999
ベーシックライセンス (PPT+PDF)
45

サマリー

Managing 2G subscribers in Asia–Pacific presents different problems depending on whether they are in emerging or developed regions, and this report discusses some of the solutions to these problems.

2G subscribers present a range of issues for operators – including low spend, high maintenance costs, minimal data use and the occupation of valuable spectrum. This report looks across the entire Asia–Pacific (APAC) region to examine how operators in very different situations are managing their 2G subscribers, from those looking to build a 3G subscriber base, to those looking to migrate the long tail and free-up resources for LTE.

This report:

  • examines the challenges presented by legacy 2G subscribers from the perspective of operators:
    • with a large, low-spending base of 2G subscribers
    • in developed markets that are looking to migrate the final 5% of 2G subscribers on to more advanced technology
  • provides insight into how operators should manage the move to 3G, and when they should do it
  • presents strategies and case studies showing how operators have successfully, and in some cases unsuccessfully, managed the migration to 3G, and provides recommendations for best practice
  • examines some of the economic incentives for operators, giving estimates for the scale of cost savings that can be achieved by managing subscribers on more advanced technology.

 

Geographical coverage

Developed Asia–Pacific

  • Australia
  • Hong Kong
 
  • Japan
  • Singapore
 
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan

Emerging Asia–Pacific

  • Bangladesh
  • China
  • India
 
  • Indonesia
  • Malaysia
 
  • Pakistan
  • Thailand

 

Company coverage

The following companies are mentioned in this report.

  • BSNL
  • China Telecom
  • Idea Cellular
  • KDDI
 
  • KT
  • NTT Docomo
  • PT XL Axiata (XL)
 
  • SingTel
  • SoftBank
  • T-Mobile USA



目次

Contents


7.Executive summary
8.The quick and complete transition from analogue 1G networks to the more advanced digital 2G ones has not been replicated for 3G or 4G (LTE)
9.2G connections will be almost non-existent in developed APAC by 2018, but will account for nearly 50% of connections in emerging APAC
10.Drivers for migrating subscribers away from 2G are numerous, but it may be difficult for operators to switch off 2G networks completely
11.In some countries, operators have a business case to avoid 3G and move straight to 4G, but the situation is complex
12.Recommendations
13.Recommendations
14.2G in Asia–Pacific
15.2G’s share of connections has sharply declined in developed Asia–Pacific, but it continues to dominate in emerging markets
16.In EMAP, 2G’s share of connections is decreasing, but 2G connections were added in all countries in 2012 except Malaysia and Thailand
17.Mobile subscribers in China are migrating away from 2G at a much faster rate than the rest of emerging Asia–Pacific
18.Countries with a higher proportion of postpaid subscribers are faster to migrate away from 2G services, mainly because of handset subsidies
19.Take-up of 3G services is poor in India and Pakistan is yet to launch it after multiple delays to the licence auction
20.In developed Asia–Pacific, 2G’s share of connections is decreasing at a high rate of approximately 9.5% each year
21.Motivations for migrating 2G subscribers
22.Many countries worldwide are discussing 2G network switch-off, but only a few operators have announced definite plans
23.Advantages: Data is increasingly replacing voice and SMS’s share of mobile revenue – 2G networks cannot meet this demand
24.Advantages: Extremely valuable spectrum can be regained and refarmed, although regulation does not always allow it
25.Disadvantages: Lost revenue from roaming and M2M services, along with significant investment in capex and possibly increased operating costs
26.Managing the migration: strategies and case studies
27.Operators should try migrating 2G subscribers, but 2G networks will remain an important asset for the next decade in emerging Asia–Pacific
28.Operators (can) use a variety of methods to accelerate the migration of subscribers away from 2G networks
29.Idea Cellular (India) and SingTel (Singapore) introduced low-cost 3G phones, with added incentives to regularly use 3G data on them
30.The launch of iconic smartphones has an impact: 2G’s share of connections significantly declined when the iPhone launched in Australia
31.For some time, operators have provided affordable 3G tariffs, advertising 3G as cheaper than 2G, but not always successfully
32.To free up its 2G spectrum, T-Mobile USA ran a device replacement programme that required subscribers to turn in their 2G devices
33.In South Korea, KCC approved KT’s request to shut down its 2G network based on the rationale of “making the most efficient use of the spectrum”
34.All the operators in Japan (except Willcom) have terminated their PDC 2G services, allowing for efficient use of the spectrum
35.Directed by the regulator, Macau is the only market that is planning to discontinue the 2G service market-wide
36.The leading operators in the USA have announced plans to switch off their 2G networks years in advance to ensure a smooth migration
37.The business case for moving away from 2G
38.A simple model highlights the benefits of operators moving subscribers from 2G to 3G [1]
39.A simple model highlights the benefits of operators moving subscribers from 2G to 3G [2]
40.About the authors and Analysys Mason
41.About the authors
42.About Analysys Mason
43.Research from Analysys Mason
44.Consulting from Analysys Mason

 

List of figures


Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
Figure 2: Evolution of mobile network technology
Figure 3: Evolution of mobile network technology platforms
Figure 4: 2G’s share of mobile connections, Asia–Pacific, 2006–2018
Figure 5: Advantages and disadvantages of moving directly from 2G to 4G
Figure 6: 2G’s share of mobile connections by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2006–2012
Figure 7: 2G’s share of mobile connections by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2006–2012
Figure 8: 2G’s share of mobile connections by country, Asia–Pacific, 2012
Figure 9: 2G’s share of mobile connections, by region, Asia–Pacific, end of 2012
Figure 10: Annual growth in numbers of 2G connections, Asia–Pacific, 2007–2012
Figure 11: Rate of migration away from 2G networks, relative to the time since the launch of 3G or 4G, by country, Asia–Pacific, 2012
Figure 12: Rate of migration away from 2G networks, by country and proportion of postpaid subscribers, Asia–Pacific, 2012
Figure 13: Average annual share of 2G connections replaced by 3G or 4G, by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2006–2012
Figure 14: Average annual share of 2G connections replaced by 3G or 4G, by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2006–2012
Figure 15: Timeline of 2G networks switch-off, selected countries, March 2010 to December 2021
Figure 16: Revenue split by service, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2018
Figure 17: Revenue split by service, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2018
Figure 18: Data’s share of mobile revenue, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2018
Figure 19: Data’s share of mobile revenue, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2009–2018
Figure 20: Approximate average 2G spectrum holding of each operator, by region, Asia–Pacific, 2013
Figure 21: Average price of auctioned 4G spectrum, Asia–Pacific
Figure 22: Annual change in 2G’s share of mobile connections, by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2007–2012
Figure 23: Strategies used by operators to accelerate the migration of 2G customers
Figure 24: 3G smartphones and associated data packages available from Idea Cellular, India, 1Q 2013
Figure 25: Affordable smartphone from SingTel, Singapore, 1H 2013
Figure 26: Timeline of the effect of the launch of iPhone 3G on 2G’s share of mobile connections, Australia
Figure 27: BSNL’s 2G and 3G prepaid plans, India, November 2009
Figure 28: T-Mobile USA’s 3G device upgrade pilot offers by city, USA, July 2012
Figure 29: Timeline for 2G network switch-off, South Korea, March 2011 to January 2012
Figure 30: Timeline for 2G network switch-off, Japan, July 2006 to March 2012
Figure 31: Timeline for 2G network switch-off, Macau, March 2012 to June 2015

Figure 32: Timeline for 2G network switch-off, USA, March 2012 to December 2021
Figure 33: Proportion of subscribers by technology generation for a theoretical operator during a 5-year programme to migrate 2G subscribers to 3G networks
Figure 34: Cost per 3G subscriber as a percentage of the cost per 2G subscriber for a theoretical operator during a 5-year programme to migrate 2G subscribers to 3G networks
Figure 35: Percentage change in operator margins because of migration
Figure 36: Percentage change in operator revenue because of migration
Figure 37: Percentage change in operator costs because of migration

 

 

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