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Wi-Fiのより高いプロトコルや新しい利用場面への自然な発展は、Wi-Fiのチップセット産業に絶大な効果があるだろう。既存の企業がなわばりを固守している間に、小規模な企業は市場シェアを拡大しようと努めている。当面は、802.11acと802.11adなどのデュアルバンドとトライバンドソリューションへの移行によって、Wi-Fiチップセットの平均価格は高まるだろう。そのため、今後5年間の収益成長は横ばいにならないで済むだろう。

この調査レポートは、最終的に5ギガヘルツや60ギガヘルツバンドに移行する促進力を究明し、Wi-Fiのほとんどがシングルバンドの2.4ギガヘルツソリューションに留まる要因について記載している。かつてはあまり顧みられなかった低出力ポータブルデバイスなどのSISOからMIMOへの移行、802.11nから802.11acや802.11adへの移行、802.11adなどのデュアルバンドとトライバンドコンフィギュレーション、様々なMIMOコンフィギュレーションも予測している。製品カテゴリー毎や主要セグメントについて予測している。チップセットベンダの概要と、各社の、それぞれのバンドの、それぞれのMIMOコンフィギュレーションの802.11n、802.11ac、802.11ad製品について記載している。

The natural progression of Wi-Fi into more capable protocols and new use cases will have a profound effect on the Wi-Fi chipset industry. Smaller players will try to make a land grab for market share while the established players will defend their turf. In the meantime, the shift to 802.11ac and to dual-band and tri-band solutions, also including 802.11ad, will bolster Wi-Fi chipset ASPs. This will change what would otherwise have been flattening revenue into continually growing revenue over the next five years.

This study addresses the driving forces behind what will finally move into the 5 GHz and 60 GHz bands and what has fueled reluctance to change and kept Wi-Fi as mostly a single-band 2.4 GHz solution. It also addresses the shift from SISO to MIMO, including in lower power portable devices, which was previously unthinkable. This study forecasts the shift from 802.11n to 802.11ac and 802.11ad, dual- and tri-band configurations including 802.11ad, and also forecasts various MIMO configurations. This is done for difference product categories and rolled up into the top line segmented forecasts. The study also profiles chipset vendors and their 802.11n, 802.11ac, and 802.11ad product offerings, which bands each supports, and which MIMO configurations each supports.

What Questions Does This Report Answer?

• When will the shift to 802.11ac occur in a profound way?
• What will the attach rate of 802.11ad look like five years out?
• What is different this time that will push the shift to multi-band chipsets?
• What will the MIMO configurations look like in three years? Five years?
• How will 802.11ac, 802.11ad, bands, and MIMO configurations look for different product categories?

Who Needs This Report?

• Wi-Fi chipset vendors
• Handset vendors
• Media tablet vendors
• Laptop and netbook vendors
• Consumer electronics vendors
• Mobile operators
• Hotspot vendors
• Enterprise CIOs

目次

ABI Research Sees Fast Transition to 802.11ac, Crossing the 50% Threshold in 2014

NEW YORK - September 12, 2011
Following small shipment volumes in 2012 and a significant increase in shipments in 2013, IEEE 802.11ac will emerge as the dominant Wi-Fi protocol by 2014. Only a niche subset of 802.11ac will be single-band 802.11ac, using solely the five GHz band. Most will be 802.11n/802.11ac dual-band chipsets.

Established Wi-Fi chipset vendors such as Broadcom, Intel, Qualcomm Atheros, and Texas Instruments will attempt to maintain or grow their share of the market by transitioning as fast as possible. The smaller vendors will attempt to grow their market share during the transition by quickly shipping chipsets with competitive protocol, band, and MIMO combinations.

While 802.11ad products will make an early debut, with a Qualcomm Atheros and Wilocity partnership leading the way, 802.11ad will not reach the 50% mark until 2016. It will be used in dual- and tri-band chipsets. Because of their lower cost, 802.11n and 802.11ac chipsets with 1X1 will remain dominant until 2015, when they will be surpassed by both 2X2 and 3X3 chipsets. 2X2 chipsets for mobile devices that can fall back to 1X1 will be indispensable to enabling this transition.

“With the exception of a small and dwindling number of 802.11g chipsets, everything has already shifted to 802.11n, and it has happened faster than most people expected. This is a clear indication of what will happen with 802.11ac,” explains Philip Solis, research director, mobile networks. “The 1x1 version of 802.11n replaced 802.11g. A rapid transition will occur with 802.11ac, but without the messy politics that slowed down the standardization of 802.11n in the past.”

ABI Research’s new report, “Wi-Fi Chipset Evolution: From 802.11n to 802.11ac and 802.11ad,” covers the Wi-Fi chipset market’s transition from 802.11n to 802.11ac and 802.11ad. Forecasts include protocol, band, and MIMO configurations for various product categories. A table of current and upcoming 802.11n, 802.11ac, and 802.11ad chipset vendors, products, protocols, bands, and MIMO configurations is included.

It is part of the Wireless Connectivity research service.