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【マーケットデータ】5Gの加入者数、トラフィック、収益

5G: Subscribers, Traffic, and Revenue

Updated Semiannually | Data | MD-5G-108 | 32 tables | 24 charts | Excel

　

出版社 出版年月価格 図表数
ABI Research
ABIリサーチ		 2016年11月お問い合わせください 56

サマリー

This is the current update for ABI Research's expanding view for the 5G market view for Consumer Subscriber Enhanced Mobile Broadband, which is primarily the mmWave rollout. ABI Research examines its historical database for indicators of technology diffusion for 2G, 3G, and 4G to indicate accelerating trends in subscribers, traffic, and revenue.  

Subscriber Uptake
Based on this and a specific assessment of over 60 leading countries, ABI Research forecasts the subscriber uptake through 2026 and aggregates into regional summaries. NA, AP, and WE are leading markets for 5G. 

Traffic Growth
ABI Research also considers the historical data for traffic growth. It is a well-known fact that subscribers consume more data when higher data speeds are available. ABI Research looks at the mass-market usage of 5G technology and conservatively estimates that a 5G subscriber (i.e., 5G mmWave) will show at least a 10X increase in data usage when on 5G mmWave, while continuing to use 4G services when 5G mmWave is not available.   

Revenue Growth
Again, we look to the historical archives of ABI Research to determine market-wide data traffic and revenues. Here, a regional industry view is computed based on total data revenue/total data traffic to yield US$/gigabyte. ABI Research then plots US$/gigabyte versus cumulative data traffic, from 2G-to-4G, including forecasting to 2026.  Data traffic and revenues are based on mobile broadband traffic, and not legacy SMS narrowband data.

Because 5G mmWave represents a step-function in data capacity, we decouple the mmWave traffic from the industrywide 2G-to-4G learning curve and forecast 5G revenues based on a different learning curve. ABI forecasts consumer revenue for Enhanced Mobile Broadband through 2026. Forecasted are not total operator revenues, but rather data traffic revenues. 

Use Case Verticals
In addition to the forecasting for enhanced Mobile Broadband, we include for the first time, a 5G summary for three verticals based on other ABI Research:

  • Automotive eMBB and URLLC
  • Artificial/Virtual Reality
  • Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems 

Ecosystem Activity
With the flurry of activity on 5G, we include listings of publicly announced agreements, demos, roadmaps, trials, and commercial deployments.  Agreements and Demos are the largest categories, and for demos, we include what are often called lab trials, field trials, technology trials, field tests, etc. We count it is as a trial when it could follow with a commercial rollout.



目次

  1. Subscriptions by Technology, Africa, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  2. Data Traffic by Technology, Africa, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  3. Data Revenue by Technology, Africa, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  4. Subscriptions by Technology, Middle East, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  5. Data Traffic by Technology, Middle East, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  6. Data Revenue by Technology, Middle East, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  7. Subscriptions by Technology, Eastern Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  8. Data Traffic by Technology, Eastern Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  9. Data Revenue by Technology, Eastern Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  10. Subscriptions by Technology, Latin America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  11. Data Traffic by Technology, Latin America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  12. Data Revenue by Technology, Latin America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  13. Subscriptions by Technology, North America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  14. Data Traffic by Technology, North America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  15. Data Revenue by Technology, North America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  16. Subscriptions by Technology, Asia-Pacific, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  17. Data Traffic by Technology, Asia-Pacific, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  18. Data Revenue by Technology, Asia-Pacific, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  19. Subscriptions by Technology, Western Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  20. Data Traffic by Technology, Western Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  21. Data Revenue by Technology, Western Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  22. Subscriptions by Technology, World Markets, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  23. Data Traffic by Technology, World Markets, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  24. Data Revenue by Technology, World Markets, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  25. 5G Ecosystem Activity, Agreements
  26. 5G Ecosystem Activity, Commercial
  27. 5G Ecosystem Activity, Demos
  28. 5G Ecosystem Activity, Roadmap
  29. 5G Ecosystem Activity, Trials
  30. Automotive 5G Subscriptions by Type, World Markets, Forecast: 2016 to 2026
  31. AR/VR Device Shipments by Device Type, World Markets, Forecast: 2016 to 2026
  32. sUAS Platform Shipments by Platform Type, World Markets, Forecast: 2016 to 2026

Charts

  1. Subscriptions by Technology, Africa, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  2. Data Traffic by Technology, Africa, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  3. Data Revenue by Technology, Africa, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  4. Subscriptions by Technology, Middle East, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  5. Data Traffic by Technology, Middle East, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  6. Data Revenue by Technology, Middle East, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  7. Subscriptions by Technology, Eastern Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  8. Data Traffic by Technology, Eastern Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  9. Data Revenue by Technology, Eastern Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  10. Subscriptions by Technology, Latin America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  11. Data Traffic by Technology, Latin America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  12. Data Revenue by Technology, Latin America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  13. Subscriptions by Technology, North America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  14. Data Traffic by Technology, North America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  15. Data Revenue by Technology, North America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  16. Subscriptions by Technology, Asia-Pacific, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  17. Data Traffic by Technology, Asia-Pacific, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  18. Data Revenue by Technology, Asia-Pacific, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  19. Subscriptions by Technology, Western Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  20. Data Traffic by Technology, Western Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  21. Data Revenue by Technology, Western Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  22. Subscriptions by Technology, World Markets, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  23. Data Traffic by Technology, World Markets, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  24. Data Revenue by Technology, World Markets, Forecast: 2014 to 2026

　

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プレスリリース

[プレスリリース原文]

ABI Research Forecasts 500 Million 5G cmWave and mmWave Subscribers Will Bring $200 Billion in Service Revenue through 2026

 

Oyster Bay, New York - 30 Nov 2016

While mobile network operators and vendors meet current market demands with LTE-A and LTE-A Pro, pre-standard 5G millimeter wave deployments are imminent. ABI Research forecasts that 5G in the cm and mm wave bands will reach nearly $200 billion in cumulative service revenues by 2026 while LTE, LTE-A, and LTE-A Pro exceed five billion subscriptions.

“While the global LTE subscriber base will continue to grow in the immediate future as operators evolve to LTE-A Pro networks, it will likely soften in developed markets when 5G deployments take off,” says Khin Sandi Lynn, Industry Analyst at ABI Research. “In 2026, the LTE portfolio will remain the dominant mobile technology, representing more than 50% of worldwide mobile subscriptions, while the 5G subscriber base will grow to account for close to 5% of the market’s total.”

Developed markets in North America and Asia-Pacific will lead the way for 5G services. U.S. mobile operators AT&T and Verizon completed field and lab testing of 5G technology and aim for pre-standard deployments in 2017, while operators in Japan and the Republic of Korea amp up their own 5G services in preparation for their upcoming Olympics. The 5G Open Trial Specification Alliance—formed by KT, NTT DOCOMO, SK Telecom, and Verizon—will also develop 5G trial activities.

Other stakeholders working toward 5G include Qualcomm. The company recently announced that its Snapdragon X50 5G modem will deliver 5Gbps device downloads in the 28 GHz band. Meanwhile, leading infrastructure vendors Ericsson, Huawei, Nokia, and ZTE are unleashing a flurry of 5G technology agreements, demos, trials and roadmaps to increase momentum for 5G.

 “4G technologies will deliver nearly $3.5 trillion in service revenues through 2026,” concludes Joe Hoffman, Managing Director and Vice President at ABI Research. “The later launching 5G will then yield almost $200 billion.”

These findings are from ABI Research’s Mobile Subscribers and 5G: Subscribers, Traffic, and Revenue reports.

 

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